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Events may also be brought into focus by filtering their origin and level of importance.  Country: Australia Canada China Europe France Germany Italy Japan New Zealand Switzerlands United States UK  Importance: < May, 2012 > S M T W T F S 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Today: 17 May 2012 Timezone   PST (Pacific Standard Time) Mexico EST (New York Time) Buenus Aires GMT (Greenwich Mean Time) WET (Western European Time) CET (Central European Time) EET (Eastern European Time) JST (Tokyo Time) Date Range Filter Results Results for the week of:13/05/2012 - 19/05/2012 Date Time Importance Country Event Actual Forecast Previous Period 13/05/2012 22:45 Retail Trade -q/q -1.5% -1.3% 2.2% Q1 Country: NewZealand - Retail Sales Definition Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Why Investors Care? With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. The monthly retail sales report contains sales data in both pounds sterling and volume. UK retail sales data exclude auto sales. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report. Frequency Monthly 13/05/2012 22:45 Retail Trade - y/y 4.4% 8.5% Q1 Country: NewZealand - Retail Sales Definition Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Why Investors Care? With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. The monthly retail sales report contains sales data in both pounds sterling and volume. UK retail sales data exclude auto sales. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report. Frequency Monthly 13/05/2012 23:50 Capital Goods Price Index (PPI) - m/m 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% Apr Country: Japan - CGPI (PPI) Definition The corporate goods price index (CGPI), previously called the wholesale price index, is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day. Why Investors Care? The corporate goods price index focuses on the prices of goods transacted between companies. It is Japan's version of the producer price index. The index reflects the price level for the supply and demand of individual industrial goods. This index is calculated by the BoJ Research and Statistics Department. Three indexes are contained in this release - the domestic corporate goods price index, the export price index and the import price index. It is the domestic index that market players follow. The CGPI comprehensively tracks input price pressures; however, the CGPI has a track record of increasing and not necessarily feeding through to the CPI because of weak demand. But if an increase in the CGPI is followed by a rise in the CPI, concerns about inflation may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Frequency Monthly 13/05/2012 23:50 Capital Goods Price Index (PPI) - y/y -0.2% -0.3% 0.6% Apr Country: Japan - CGPI (PPI) Definition The corporate goods price index (CGPI), previously called the wholesale price index, is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day. Why Investors Care? The corporate goods price index focuses on the prices of goods transacted between companies. It is Japan's version of the producer price index. The index reflects the price level for the supply and demand of individual industrial goods. This index is calculated by the BoJ Research and Statistics Department. Three indexes are contained in this release - the domestic corporate goods price index, the export price index and the import price index. It is the domestic index that market players follow. The CGPI comprehensively tracks input price pressures; however, the CGPI has a track record of increasing and not necessarily feeding through to the CPI because of weak demand. But if an increase in the CGPI is followed by a rise in the CPI, concerns about inflation may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Frequency Monthly 14/05/2012 01:30 Home Loans - m/m 0.3% -2.0% -2.5% Mar Country: Australia - Home Loans Definition Contain data for secured and unsecured housing finance commitments for owner occupation, commitments for construction or purchase of dwellings for rent or resale, and loans outstanding to individuals/households for housing. Frequency Monthly 14/05/2012 01:30 Home Loans - y/y 11.0% 9.8% Mar Country: Australia - Home Loans Definition Contain data for secured and unsecured housing finance commitments for owner occupation, commitments for construction or purchase of dwellings for rent or resale, and loans outstanding to individuals/households for housing. Frequency Monthly 14/05/2012 06:00 Wholesale Trade - m/m 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% Apr Country: Germany - Wholesale Trade Definition Wholesale trade measures the dollar value of sales made and inventories held by merchant wholesalers. It is a component of business sales and inventories. Why Investors Care? Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a slower rate of growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. Wholesale sales and inventory data give investors a chance to look below the surface of the visible consumer economy. Activity at the wholesale level can be a precursor for consumer trends. In particular, by looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see how fast production will grow in coming months. For example, if inventory growth lags sales growth, then manufacturers will need to boost production lest product shortages occur. On the other hand, if unintended inventory accumulation occurs (i.e. sales did not meet expectations), then production will probably have to slow while those inventories are worked down. In this manner, the inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for tracking the economy. Frequency Monthly Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce Availability Generally the second week of the month. Coverage Data are for two months prior to release month. Data for June are released in August. Revisions Yes. 14/05/2012 07:15 Producer and Import Price Index - m/m -0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Apr Country: Switzerland - Producer and Import Price Index Definition The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods received by producers. Why Investors Care? The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. Producer prices are more volatile than consumer prices. While the CPI is the price index with the most impact in setting interest rates, the PPI provides significant information earlier in the production process. The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace. The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Frequency Monthly 14/05/2012 07:15 Producer and Import Price Index - y/y -2.3% -2.0% Apr Country: Switzerland - Producer and Import Price Index Definition The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods received by producers. Why Investors Care? The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. Producer prices are more volatile than consumer prices. While the CPI is the price index with the most impact in setting interest rates, the PPI provides significant information earlier in the production process. The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace. The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Frequency Monthly 14/05/2012 08:00 Consumer Price Index (CPI) - m/m 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Apr Country: Italy - CPI Definition The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank. Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Frequency Monthly 14/05/2012 08:00 Consumer Price Index (CPI) - y/y 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Apr Country: Italy - CPI Definition The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank. Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Frequency Monthly 14/05/2012 09:00 Industrial Production (IP) - m/m -0.3% 0.3% 0.5% Mar Country: EMU - Industrial Production Definition This indicator measures the physical output of factories, mines and utilities for the 16 EMU members. The measure preferred by the ECB excludes construction. Why Investors Care? Industrial production measures changes in the volume of output for the EMU's member states. The industrial production index provides a measure of the volume trend in value added at factor cost over a given reference period, excluding VAT and other similar deductible taxes. The preferred number is industrial production excluding construction. As with other EMU statistics, the data are provided by the national statistics offices to Eurostat (the European Union statistical agency) where it is combined to produce an overall output measure. Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. Frequency Monthly 14/05/2012 09:00 Industrial Production (IP) - y/y -2.2% -1.8% -1.8% Mar Country: EMU - Industrial Production Definition This indicator measures the physical output of factories, mines and utilities for the 16 EMU members. The measure preferred by the ECB excludes construction. Why Investors Care? Industrial production measures changes in the volume of output for the EMU's member states. The industrial production index provides a measure of the volume trend in value added at factor cost over a given reference period, excluding VAT and other similar deductible taxes. The preferred number is industrial production excluding construction. As with other EMU statistics, the data are provided by the national statistics offices to Eurostat (the European Union statistical agency) where it is combined to produce an overall output measure. Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. Frequency Monthly 15/05/2012 01:30 Protocol of last interest rate meeting Country: Australia 15/05/2012 05:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Flash - y/y 0.3% 0.4% 1.4% Q1 Country: France - GDP Flash Definition Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The flash estimate, which will be released about 45 days after the quarter's end, is an effort to speed up delivery of key economic data. Frequency Quarterly 15/05/2012 05:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) - m/m 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% Apr Country: France - CPI Definition The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank. France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Frequency Monthly 15/05/2012 05:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) - y/y 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% Apr Country: France - CPI Definition The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank. France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Frequency Monthly 15/05/2012 06:00 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Flash - y/y 1.2% 0.9% 2.0% Q1 Country: Germany - GDP Flash Definition Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The flash estimate, which will be released about 45 days after the quarter's end, is an effort to speed up delivery of key economic data. Frequency Quarterly 15/05/2012 08:00 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - q/q -0.8% -0.7% -0.7% Q1 Country: Italy - GDP Definition Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Why Investors Care? GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio. Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects. Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth. Frequency Quarterly 15/05/2012 08:00 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - y/y -1.3% -1.3% -0.4% Q1 Country: Italy - GDP Definition Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Why Investors Care? GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio. Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects. Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth. Frequency Quarterly 15/05/2012 08:30 Merchandise Trade - level Stg-8.6B Stg-8.4B Stg-8.8B Mar Country: UK - Merchandise Trade Definition Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. Why Investors Care? Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in the UK. Exports show the demand for UK goods in countries overseas. The pound sterling can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United Kingdom, since the trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country. Frequency Monthly 15/05/2012 08:30 Imports - m/m 4.2% 0.0% Mar Country: UK - Merchandise Trade Definition Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. Why Investors Care? Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in the UK. Exports show the demand for UK goods in countries overseas. The pound sterling can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United Kingdom, since the trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country. Frequency Monthly 15/05/2012 08:30 Exports - m/m 5.8% -3.4% Mar Country: UK - Merchandise Trade Definition Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. Why Investors Care? Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in the UK. Exports show the demand for UK goods in countries overseas. The pound sterling can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United Kingdom, since the trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country. Frequency Monthly 15/05/2012 09:00 ZEW Survey - Current Conditions 44.1 38.0 40.7 May Country: Germany - ZEW Survey Definition The monthly survey, conducted by the Mannheim-based Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), asks German financial experts for their opinions on current economic conditions and the economic outlook for major industrial economies. Why Investors Care? The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is calculated from the results of the ZEW Financial Market Survey. The ZEW is followed closely as a precursor and predictor of the Ifo Sentiment Survey and as such is followed closely by market participants. The data are available the second week of the month for the preceding month. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic for the expected economic development in Germany in six months. About 350 financial experts take part in the survey. 15/05/2012 09:00 ZEW Survey - Business Expectations 10.8 18.0 23.4 May Country: Germany - ZEW Survey Definition The monthly survey, conducted by the Mannheim-based Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), asks German financial experts for their opinions on current economic conditions and the economic outlook for major industrial economies. Why Investors Care? The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is calculated from the results of the ZEW Financial Market Survey. The ZEW is followed closely as a precursor and predictor of the Ifo Sentiment Survey and as such is followed closely by market participants. The data are available the second week of the month for the preceding month. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic for the expected economic development in Germany in six months. About 350 financial experts take part in the survey. 15/05/2012 09:00 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Flash - y/y 0.0% -0.3% 0.7% Q1 Country: EMU - GDP Flash Definition Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. This preliminary estimate is based only on the GDP releases of Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. The estimate also includes data from other countries as available. Frequency Quarterly 15/05/2012 11:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales - w/w -0.8% -0.8% L/W Country: US - ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Definition This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales. Why Investors Care? Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and during the 2001 recession. Sales weakened again in 2008 and 2009 due to the credit crunch and recession. The ICSC-Goldman index is one of the more timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales series previously was known as ICSC-UBS before Goldman Sach's involvement with ICSC. The name change took place with the September 30, 2008 release. Frequency Weekly Source International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Availability Tuesdays Coverage Week-ending Saturday before the release. Revisions No Frequency Weekly 15/05/2012 11:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales - y/y 4.5% 3.3% L/W Country: US - ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Definition This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales. Why Investors Care? Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and during the 2001 recession. Sales weakened again in 2008 and 2009 due to the credit crunch and recession. The ICSC-Goldman index is one of the more timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales series previously was known as ICSC-UBS before Goldman Sach's involvement with ICSC. The name change took place with the September 30, 2008 release. Frequency Weekly Source International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Availability Tuesdays Coverage Week-ending Saturday before the release. Revisions No Frequency Weekly 15/05/2012 12:30 Retail Sales - m/m 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% Apr Country: US - Retail Sales Definition Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. Why Investors Care? Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report. Balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, but then rebounded at a healthy pace between 2003 and 2005. By 2007, the credit crunch was well underway and starting to undermine growth in consumer spending. Later in 2008 and 2009, the rise in unemployment and loss of income during the recession also cut into retail sales. Importance Retail sales are a major indicator of consumer spending trends because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity. Interpretation Strong retail sales are bearish for the bond market, but favorable for the stock market, particularly retail stocks. Sluggish retail sales could lead to a bond market rally, but will probably be bearish for the stock market. Retail sales are subject to substantial month-to-month variability. In order to provide a more accurate picture of the consumer spending trend, follow the three-month moving average of the monthly percent changes or the year-over-year percent change. Retail sales are also subject to substantial monthly revisions, which makes it more difficult to discern the underlying trend. This problem underscores the need to monitor the moving average rather than just the latest one month of data. In an attempt to avoid the more extreme volatility, economists and financial market participants monitor retail sales less autos (actually less auto dealers which include trucks, too.) Motor vehicle sales are excluded not because they are irrelevant, but because they fluctuate more than overall retail sales. Watch for changes in food and energy prices which could affect two large components among nondurable goods stores: food stores and gasoline service stations. Large declines in food or energy prices could lead to declines in store sales which are due to price, not volume. This would mean that real sales were stronger than nominal dollar sales. Since economic performance depend on real, rather than nominal growth rates, compare the trend growth rate in retail sales to that in the CPI for commodities. Frequency Monthly. Source Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Availability Mid-month. Coverage Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July. Revisions Yes. 15/05/2012 12:30 Retail Sales less Autos - m/m 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% Apr Country: US - Retail Sales Definition Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. Why Investors Care? Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report. Balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, but then rebounded at a healthy pace between 2003 and 2005. By 2007, the credit crunch was well underway and starting to undermine growth in consumer spending. Later in 2008 and 2009, the rise in unemployment and loss of income during the recession also cut into retail sales. Importance Retail sales are a major indicator of consumer spending trends because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity. Interpretation Strong retail sales are bearish for the bond market, but favorable for the stock market, particularly retail stocks. Sluggish retail sales could lead to a bond market rally, but will probably be bearish for the stock market. Retail sales are subject to substantial month-to-month variability. In order to provide a more accurate picture of the consumer spending trend, follow the three-month moving average of the monthly percent changes or the year-over-year percent change. Retail sales are also subject to substantial monthly revisions, which makes it more difficult to discern the underlying trend. This problem underscores the need to monitor the moving average rather than just the latest one month of data. In an attempt to avoid the more extreme volatility, economists and financial market participants monitor retail sales less autos (actually less auto dealers which include trucks, too.) Motor vehicle sales are excluded not because they are irrelevant, but because they fluctuate more than overall retail sales. Watch for changes in food and energy prices which could affect two large components among nondurable goods stores: food stores and gasoline service stations. Large declines in food or energy prices could lead to declines in store sales which are due to price, not volume. This would mean that real sales were stronger than nominal dollar sales. Since economic performance depend on real, rather than nominal growth rates, compare the trend growth rate in retail sales to that in the CPI for commodities. Frequency Monthly. Source Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Availability Mid-month. Coverage Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July. Revisions Yes. 15/05/2012 12:30 Empire State General Business Conditions - level 17.09 10.00 6.56 May Country: US - Empire State Mfg Survey Definition The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. Why Investors Care? Investors track economic data like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey to understand the economic backdrop for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a moderate growth environment that won't generate inflationary pressures. The Empire Manufacturing Survey gives a detailed look at New York state's manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. Some of the Empire State Survey sub-indexes also provide insight on commodity prices and other clues on inflation. The Federal Reserve closely watches this report because when inflation signals are flashing, policymakers can reset the direction of interest rates. As a consequence, the bond market can be highly sensitive to this report. The equity market is also sensitive to this report because it is the first clue on the nation's manufacturing sector, reported in advance of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlooks survey, the NAPM-Chicago index and the ISM manufacturing index. Frequency Monthly. Source Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Availability The 15th of the month or next business day if the 15th is on a weekend or holiday. Coverage Data are for the same month as the release month. Data for June are released in June. Revisions No. 15/05/2012 12:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) - m/m 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Apr Country: US - Consumer Price Index Definition The consumer price index is available nationally by expenditure category and by commodity and service group for all urban consumers (CPI-U) and wage earners (CPI-W). All urban consumers are a more inclusive group, representing about 87 percent of the population. The CPI-U is the more widely quoted of the two, although cost-of-living contracts for unions and Social Security benefits are usually tied to the CPI-W, because it has a longer history. Monthly variations between the two are slight. The CPI is also available by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for many metropolitan areas. The regional and city CPIs are often used in local contracts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also produces a chain-weighted index called the Chained CPI. This measures a variable basket of goods and services whereas the regular CPI-U and CPI-W measure a fixed basket of goods and services. The Chained CPI is similar to the personal consumption expenditure deflator that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve Board. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed monthly indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets- and your investments. If someone borrows $100 dollars from you today and promises to repay it in one year with interest, how much interest should you charge? The answer depends largely on inflation as you know the $100 will not be able to buy the same amount of goods and services a year from now. The CPI tells us that prices rose 4.2 percent in the U.S. over 2007. To recoup your purchasing power, you would have to charge 4.2 percent interest. You might want to add one or two percentage points to cover default and other risks, but inflation remains the key factor behind the interest rate you charge. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. Importance The consumer price index is the most widely followed monthly indicator of inflation. The CPI is considered a cost-of-living measure since it is used to adjust contracts of all types that are tied to inflation. Labor contracts are tied to changes in the CPI; Social Security payments are tied to the CPI; and even tax brackets are tied to the consumer price index. For monetary policy, the Federal Reserve generally follows "headline" and "core" inflation. This latter measure excludes the volatile food and energy components. The Fed's preferred inflation measure is not the CPI but the personal consumption price index because it reflects what consumers are actually buying during any given period-the component weights are updated annually while those for the CPI are updated infrequently. However, the subcomponent price data of the CPI are used to compile the PCE price index (PCE prices are released almost two weeks after the CPI). Thus, the CPI and the PCE price index are inextricably linked. In the long run, the overall CPI and core CPI track each other. Interpretation The bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Economic data tends to be volatile from month to month; the CPI is no exception. Large fluctuations in the consumer price index are often due to the food and energy components. Weather conditions affect both to a large extent. OPEC, the oil cartel, also affects energy prices. As a result, economists and financial market participants prefer to monitor the CPI excluding food and energy prices for its greater monthly stability. This is also referred to as the "core" CPI. Oddly enough, items that make part of the "core" also include discretionary goods and services. And while food and energy prices are excluded because of their monthly volatility, what can be more "core" than food and energy? Food and energy prices account for a little more than one-fifth of the CPI. The consumer price index has evolved over time as consumer expenditures changed. Commodities now make up only 40 percent of the index and the remaining 60 percent are services. It is useful to monitor goods and services separately since prices of goods are more volatile than prices of services. Usually, when investors refer to the real rate of interest, they use the year-over-year rise in the CPI to subtract from an interest rate, such as the 10-year Treasury note. Consumer prices rose 2.5 percent from June 2004 to June 2005; the 10-year Treasury note averaged 4.0 percent in June 2005. The Treasury yield less the inflation rate put the real interest rate at 1.5 percent for the month. Frequency Monthly Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor Availability Around mid-month. Coverage Data are for one month prior to release month. Data for June are released in July. Revisions No 15/05/2012 12:30 Core CPI -m/m 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Apr Country: US - Consumer Price Index Definition The consumer price index is available nationally by expenditure category and by commodity and service group for all urban consumers (CPI-U) and wage earners (CPI-W). All urban consumers are a more inclusive group, representing about 87 percent of the population. The CPI-U is the more widely quoted of the two, although cost-of-living contracts for unions and Social Security benefits are usually tied to the CPI-W, because it has a longer history. Monthly variations between the two are slight. The CPI is also available by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for many metropolitan areas. The regional and city CPIs are often used in local contracts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also produces a chain-weighted index called the Chained CPI. This measures a variable basket of goods and services whereas the regular CPI-U and CPI-W measure a fixed basket of goods and services. The Chained CPI is similar to the personal consumption expenditure deflator that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve Board. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed monthly indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets- and your investments. If someone borrows $100 dollars from you today and promises to repay it in one year with interest, how much interest should you charge? The answer depends largely on inflation as you know the $100 will not be able to buy the same amount of goods and services a year from now. The CPI tells us that prices rose 4.2 percent in the U.S. over 2007. To recoup your purchasing power, you would have to charge 4.2 percent interest. You might want to add one or two percentage points to cover default and other risks, but inflation remains the key factor behind the interest rate you charge. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. Importance The consumer price index is the most widely followed monthly indicator of inflation. The CPI is considered a cost-of-living measure since it is used to adjust contracts of all types that are tied to inflation. Labor contracts are tied to changes in the CPI; Social Security payments are tied to the CPI; and even tax brackets are tied to the consumer price index. For monetary policy, the Federal Reserve generally follows "headline" and "core" inflation. This latter measure excludes the volatile food and energy components. The Fed's preferred inflation measure is not the CPI but the personal consumption price index because it reflects what consumers are actually buying during any given period-the component weights are updated annually while those for the CPI are updated infrequently. However, the subcomponent price data of the CPI are used to compile the PCE price index (PCE prices are released almost two weeks after the CPI). Thus, the CPI and the PCE price index are inextricably linked. In the long run, the overall CPI and core CPI track each other. Interpretation The bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Economic data tends to be volatile from month to month; the CPI is no exception. Large fluctuations in the consumer price index are often due to the food and energy components. Weather conditions affect both to a large extent. OPEC, the oil cartel, also affects energy prices. As a result, economists and financial market participants prefer to monitor the CPI excluding food and energy prices for its greater monthly stability. This is also referred to as the "core" CPI. Oddly enough, items that make part of the "core" also include discretionary goods and services. And while food and energy prices are excluded because of their monthly volatility, what can be more "core" than food and energy? Food and energy prices account for a little more than one-fifth of the CPI. The consumer price index has evolved over time as consumer expenditures changed. Commodities now make up only 40 percent of the index and the remaining 60 percent are services. It is useful to monitor goods and services separately since prices of goods are more volatile than prices of services. Usually, when investors refer to the real rate of interest, they use the year-over-year rise in the CPI to subtract from an interest rate, such as the 10-year Treasury note. Consumer prices rose 2.5 percent from June 2004 to June 2005; the 10-year Treasury note averaged 4.0 percent in June 2005. The Treasury yield less the inflation rate put the real interest rate at 1.5 percent for the month. Frequency Monthly Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor Availability Around mid-month. Coverage Data are for one month prior to release month. Data for June are released in July. Revisions No 15/05/2012 12:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) -y/y 2.3% 2.6% Apr Country: US - Consumer Price Index Definition The consumer price index is available nationally by expenditure category and by commodity and service group for all urban consumers (CPI-U) and wage earners (CPI-W). All urban consumers are a more inclusive group, representing about 87 percent of the population. The CPI-U is the more widely quoted of the two, although cost-of-living contracts for unions and Social Security benefits are usually tied to the CPI-W, because it has a longer history. Monthly variations between the two are slight. The CPI is also available by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for many metropolitan areas. The regional and city CPIs are often used in local contracts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also produces a chain-weighted index called the Chained CPI. This measures a variable basket of goods and services whereas the regular CPI-U and CPI-W measure a fixed basket of goods and services. The Chained CPI is similar to the personal consumption expenditure deflator that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve Board. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed monthly indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets- and your investments. If someone borrows $100 dollars from you today and promises to repay it in one year with interest, how much interest should you charge? The answer depends largely on inflation as you know the $100 will not be able to buy the same amount of goods and services a year from now. The CPI tells us that prices rose 4.2 percent in the U.S. over 2007. To recoup your purchasing power, you would have to charge 4.2 percent interest. You might want to add one or two percentage points to cover default and other risks, but inflation remains the key factor behind the interest rate you charge. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. Importance The consumer price index is the most widely followed monthly indicator of inflation. The CPI is considered a cost-of-living measure since it is used to adjust contracts of all types that are tied to inflation. Labor contracts are tied to changes in the CPI; Social Security payments are tied to the CPI; and even tax brackets are tied to the consumer price index. For monetary policy, the Federal Reserve generally follows "headline" and "core" inflation. This latter measure excludes the volatile food and energy components. The Fed's preferred inflation measure is not the CPI but the personal consumption price index because it reflects what consumers are actually buying during any given period-the component weights are updated annually while those for the CPI are updated infrequently. However, the subcomponent price data of the CPI are used to compile the PCE price index (PCE prices are released almost two weeks after the CPI). Thus, the CPI and the PCE price index are inextricably linked. In the long run, the overall CPI and core CPI track each other. Interpretation The bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Economic data tends to be volatile from month to month; the CPI is no exception. Large fluctuations in the consumer price index are often due to the food and energy components. Weather conditions affect both to a large extent. OPEC, the oil cartel, also affects energy prices. As a result, economists and financial market participants prefer to monitor the CPI excluding food and energy prices for its greater monthly stability. This is also referred to as the "core" CPI. Oddly enough, items that make part of the "core" also include discretionary goods and services. And while food and energy prices are excluded because of their monthly volatility, what can be more "core" than food and energy? Food and energy prices account for a little more than one-fifth of the CPI. The consumer price index has evolved over time as consumer expenditures changed. Commodities now make up only 40 percent of the index and the remaining 60 percent are services. It is useful to monitor goods and services separately since prices of goods are more volatile than prices of services. Usually, when investors refer to the real rate of interest, they use the year-over-year rise in the CPI to subtract from an interest rate, such as the 10-year Treasury note. Consumer prices rose 2.5 percent from June 2004 to June 2005; the 10-year Treasury note averaged 4.0 percent in June 2005. The Treasury yield less the inflation rate put the real interest rate at 1.5 percent for the month. Frequency Monthly Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor Availability Around mid-month. Coverage Data are for one month prior to release month. Data for June are released in July. Revisions No 15/05/2012 12:30 Core CPI - y/y 2.3% 2.3% Apr Country: US - Consumer Price Index Definition The consumer price index is available nationally by expenditure category and by commodity and service group for all urban consumers (CPI-U) and wage earners (CPI-W). All urban consumers are a more inclusive group, representing about 87 percent of the population. The CPI-U is the more widely quoted of the two, although cost-of-living contracts for unions and Social Security benefits are usually tied to the CPI-W, because it has a longer history. Monthly variations between the two are slight. The CPI is also available by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for many metropolitan areas. The regional and city CPIs are often used in local contracts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also produces a chain-weighted index called the Chained CPI. This measures a variable basket of goods and services whereas the regular CPI-U and CPI-W measure a fixed basket of goods and services. The Chained CPI is similar to the personal consumption expenditure deflator that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve Board. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed monthly indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets- and your investments. If someone borrows $100 dollars from you today and promises to repay it in one year with interest, how much interest should you charge? The answer depends largely on inflation as you know the $100 will not be able to buy the same amount of goods and services a year from now. The CPI tells us that prices rose 4.2 percent in the U.S. over 2007. To recoup your purchasing power, you would have to charge 4.2 percent interest. You might want to add one or two percentage points to cover default and other risks, but inflation remains the key factor behind the interest rate you charge. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. Importance The consumer price index is the most widely followed monthly indicator of inflation. The CPI is considered a cost-of-living measure since it is used to adjust contracts of all types that are tied to inflation. Labor contracts are tied to changes in the CPI; Social Security payments are tied to the CPI; and even tax brackets are tied to the consumer price index. For monetary policy, the Federal Reserve generally follows "headline" and "core" inflation. This latter measure excludes the volatile food and energy components. The Fed's preferred inflation measure is not the CPI but the personal consumption price index because it reflects what consumers are actually buying during any given period-the component weights are updated annually while those for the CPI are updated infrequently. However, the subcomponent price data of the CPI are used to compile the PCE price index (PCE prices are released almost two weeks after the CPI). Thus, the CPI and the PCE price index are inextricably linked. In the long run, the overall CPI and core CPI track each other. Interpretation The bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Economic data tends to be volatile from month to month; the CPI is no exception. Large fluctuations in the consumer price index are often due to the food and energy components. Weather conditions affect both to a large extent. OPEC, the oil cartel, also affects energy prices. As a result, economists and financial market participants prefer to monitor the CPI excluding food and energy prices for its greater monthly stability. This is also referred to as the "core" CPI. Oddly enough, items that make part of the "core" also include discretionary goods and services. And while food and energy prices are excluded because of their monthly volatility, what can be more "core" than food and energy? Food and energy prices account for a little more than one-fifth of the CPI. The consumer price index has evolved over time as consumer expenditures changed. Commodities now make up only 40 percent of the index and the remaining 60 percent are services. It is useful to monitor goods and services separately since prices of goods are more volatile than prices of services. Usually, when investors refer to the real rate of interest, they use the year-over-year rise in the CPI to subtract from an interest rate, such as the 10-year Treasury note. Consumer prices rose 2.5 percent from June 2004 to June 2005; the 10-year Treasury note averaged 4.0 percent in June 2005. The Treasury yield less the inflation rate put the real interest rate at 1.5 percent for the month. Frequency Monthly Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor Availability Around mid-month. Coverage Data are for one month prior to release month. Data for June are released in July. Revisions No 15/05/2012 12:55 Redbook Store Sales - y/y 3.7% 2.6% L/W Country: US - Redbook Definition A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. It is also calculated differently than other indicators. For instance, figures for the first week of the month are compared with the average for the entire previous month. When two weeks are available, then these are compared with the average for the previous month, and so on. It might be more useful to compare year-over-year figures since these are indeed compared to the comparable week a year ago. This index is correlated with the general merchandise portion of retail sales covering only about 10 percent of total retail sales. Why Investors Care? Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and during the 2001 recession. Sales weakened again in 2008 due to the credit crunch and recession. The Redbook is one of the more timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005. Source Redbook Research, Inc. Availability Tuesdays. Coverage Week-ending Saturday before the release. Revisions Yes. Frequency Weekly 15/05/2012 13:00 Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities - level $36.2B $10.1B Mar Country: US - Treasury International Capital Definition These Treasury data track the flows of financial instruments into and out of the United States. Instruments tracked include Treasury securities, agency securities, corporate bonds, and corporate equities. Why Investors Care? TIC data have been issued for the past 30 years, but only recently, due to an enormous rise in foreign participation in our markets, have they grabbed the attention of the international financial markets. Although methodologically limited, TIC offers a measure of foreign demand for our debt and assets. Bonds and the dollar are most sensitive to the data, therefore bond and foreign exchange markets are more likely to react to this report than the equity market. Strong inflows (demand for U.S. securities) are needed to keep downward pressure on interest rates. Strong inflows also underpin the value of the dollar since foreigners must purchase dollars in order to buy our securities. A strong dollar helps to maintain stability in all U.S. financial markets. Since foreign ownership of U.S. equities is comparatively small, the equity market is less concerned about this report. Frequency Monthly Source U.S. Department of the Treasury. Availability Mid-month. Coverage Data are for two months prior to release month. Data for June are released in August. Revisions Yes. 15/05/2012 14:00 Business Inventories - m/m 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% Mar Country: US - Business Inventories Definition Business inventories are the dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator of the near-term direction of production activity. (Bureau of the Census) Why Investors Care? Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth that won't generate inflationary pressures. Rising inventories can be an indication of business optimism that sales will be growing in the coming months. By looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see whether production demands will expand or contract in the near future. For example, if inventory growth lags sales growth, then manufacturers will have to boost production lest commodity shortages occur. On the other hand, if unintended inventory accumulation occurs (that is, sales do not meet expectations), then production will probably have to slow while those inventories are worked down. In this manner, the business inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for tracking the economy. Frequency Monthly Source Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce Availability Mid-month Coverage Data are for two months prior to release month. Data for June are released in August. Revisions Yes 15/05/2012 14:00 Housing Market Index - level 29 26 25 May Country: US - Housing Market Index Definition The National Association of Home Builders produces a housing market index based on a survey in which respondents from this organization are asked to rate the general economy and housing market conditions. The housing market index is a weighted average of separate diffusion indexes: present sales of new homes, sale of new homes expected in the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers in new homes. Why Investors Care? This report provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the housing market index, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Whether the housing market index reflects new home sales or home resales, once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor and the builder. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home sales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies. Frequency Monthly. Source National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo. Availability Mid-month, one day prior to the housing starts report. Coverage Data are for the same month as the release. June data are released in mid-June. Revisions No. 15/05/2012 23:50 Tertiary Index - m/m -0.6% -0.3% 0.0% Mar Country: Japan - Tertiary Index Definition The tertiary index measures activity in 13 industries. the major components are utilities, transport and telecommunications, wholesale and retail, finance and insurance, real estate and services. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day. Why Investors Care? The tertiary index measures output by the service sector. Because this report excludes manufacturing the index is considered a key measure of domestic activity. The index incorporates data from firms involved with wholesale and retail trade, financial services, health care, real estate, leisure and utilities. The report excludes industrial manufacturing sectors that tend to be influenced by foreign demand. Frequency Monthly 15/05/2012 23:50 Tertiary Index - y/y 4.9% -0.2% Mar Country: Japan - Tertiary Index Definition The tertiary index measures activity in 13 industries. the major components are utilities, transport and telecommunications, wholesale and retail, finance and insurance, real estate and services. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day. Why Investors Care? The tertiary index measures output by the service sector. Because this report excludes manufacturing the index is considered a key measure of domestic activity. The index incorporates data from firms involved with wholesale and retail trade, financial services, health care, real estate, leisure and utilities. The report excludes industrial manufacturing sectors that tend to be influenced by foreign demand. Frequency Monthly 16/05/2012 00:30 Consumer Confidence 0.8% -1.6% May Country: Australia Source: The Conference Board. Raw Data Available At: http://www.tcb-indicators.org/ Release Time: 10:00 ET on the last Tuesday of the month (data for current month). This survey measures the level of confidence individual households have in the performance of the economy now and in the future. It is a leading indicator of future spending and the business cycle. 5000 consumers in the nine census divisions across the country are surveyed each month. The level of consumer confidence is directly correlated to the strength of consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy. It also correlates closely with joblessness, inflation, and real incomes. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the index are just noise. Only index changes of at least five points should be considered significant. The index consists of two subindexes - consumers' appraisal of current conditions and their expectations for the future. Expectations make up 60% of the total index, with current conditions accounting for the other 40%. The expectations index is typically seen as having better leading indicator qualities than the current conditions index. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. Note, changes in consumer confidence and retail sales do not move in tandem month by month. If the economy experiences a long-term expansion, buying intentions may decline even while the jobless rate declines because of the satisfaction of pent-up demand. Conversely, if inflation begins to accelerate, spending plans may increase for the short-term as consumers buy now to avoid having to pay higher prices later. Regional differences in consumer confidence are an indication of differing business cycles across the nation. This has implications for spending on durable goods and, more importantly, for residential real estate markets. Financial markets interpret rising consumer confidence as a precursor to higher consumer spending. Higher consumer spending could in turn spark inflation. Look for a change in the direction of the six month moving average of the index. Consumers do not usually have the necessary information to accurately assess income and job growth six months in the future. The report provides information on planned spending, which does not necessarily turn into actual spending, although it is unlikely that increasing consumer confidence would be followed by a decline in spending. The Consumer Confidence survey is not useful for any type of forecasting. 16/05/2012 08:00 Merchandise Trade - level E0.7B E-0.6B Mar Country: Italy - ISAE Consumer Confidence Definition Each month ISAE surveys 2,000 Italian consumers on their economic situation as well as the overall economic situation. Why Investors Care? Each month ISAE surveys consumers to gauge their economic wellbeing. Since consumer spending accounts for such a large portion of the economy, the markets are always eager to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. ISAE analyzes the responses within four major geographic areas -- Northeast, Northwest, Center and South. Source ISAE Frequency Monthly 16/05/2012 08:30 Claimant Unemployment - number -13,700 5,000 3,600 Apr Country: UK - Labour Market Report Definition Labour market statistics measure different aspects of work and jobs and provide an insight into the economy. The statistics cover labour force participation as well as ILO unemployment and claimant count unemployment. The statistics also show any earnings and benefits they receive. The International Labor Organization unemployment, which excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are looking for work and are available for work. The ILO unemployment rate is the number of people who are ILO unemployed as a proportion of the resident economically active population of the area concerned. The claimant count measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits (Jobseekers allowance since October 1996). The claimant count is not an alternative measure of unemployment as it does not meet the internationally agreed Definition of unemployment specified by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). However, it is regarded as more up to date and reflective of current conditions by the markets. Average earnings is a key indicator of inflationary pressures emanating from the labour market and is widely used by those involved in economic policy formulation. Why Investors Care? The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest. The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target. By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process. 16/05/2012 08:30 Claimant Unemployment Rate - level 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% Apr Country: UK - Labour Market Report Definition Labour market statistics measure different aspects of work and jobs and provide an insight into the economy. The statistics cover labour force participation as well as ILO unemployment and claimant count unemployment. The statistics also show any earnings and benefits they receive. The International Labor Organization unemployment, which excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are looking for work and are available for work. The ILO unemployment rate is the number of people who are ILO unemployed as a proportion of the resident economically active population of the area concerned. The claimant count measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits (Jobseekers allowance since October 1996). The claimant count is not an alternative measure of unemployment as it does not meet the internationally agreed Definition of unemployment specified by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). However, it is regarded as more up to date and reflective of current conditions by the markets. Average earnings is a key indicator of inflationary pressures emanating from the labour market and is widely used by those involved in economic policy formulation. Why Investors Care? The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest. The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target. By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process. 16/05/2012 08:30 ILO Unemployment Rate - level 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% Apr Country: UK - Labour Market Report Definition Labour market statistics measure different aspects of work and jobs and provide an insight into the economy. The statistics cover labour force participation as well as ILO unemployment and claimant count unemployment. The statistics also show any earnings and benefits they receive. The International Labor Organization unemployment, which excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are looking for work and are available for work. The ILO unemployment rate is the number of people who are ILO unemployed as a proportion of the resident economically active population of the area concerned. The claimant count measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits (Jobseekers allowance since October 1996). The claimant count is not an alternative measure of unemployment as it does not meet the internationally agreed Definition of unemployment specified by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). However, it is regarded as more up to date and reflective of current conditions by the markets. Average earnings is a key indicator of inflationary pressures emanating from the labour market and is widely used by those involved in economic policy formulation. Why Investors Care? The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest. The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target. By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process. 16/05/2012 08:30 Average Earnings - y/y 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% Apr Country: UK - Labour Market Report Definition Labour market statistics measure different aspects of work and jobs and provide an insight into the economy. The statistics cover labour force participation as well as ILO unemployment and claimant count unemployment. The statistics also show any earnings and benefits they receive. The International Labor Organization unemployment, which excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are looking for work and are available for work. The ILO unemployment rate is the number of people who are ILO unemployed as a proportion of the resident economically active population of the area concerned. The claimant count measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits (Jobseekers allowance since October 1996). The claimant count is not an alternative measure of unemployment as it does not meet the internationally agreed Definition of unemployment specified by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). However, it is regarded as more up to date and reflective of current conditions by the markets. Average earnings is a key indicator of inflationary pressures emanating from the labour market and is widely used by those involved in economic policy formulation. Why Investors Care? The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest. The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target. By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process. 16/05/2012 09:00 Merchandise Trade - level E4.3B E4.7B E3.7B Mar Country: EMU - Merchandise Trade Definition Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. Why Investors Care? Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services. Exports show the demand for eurozone goods in countries overseas. The euro can be particularly sensitive to changes in the balance since a trade imbalance can create greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of EMU trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country. Frequency Monthly 16/05/2012 09:00 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) - m/m 0.5% 0.5% 1.3% Apr Country: EMU - HICP Definition The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) is an internationally comparable measure of inflation calculated by each member of the European Union using a specific formula. Since January 1999, the European Central Bank has used the HICP as its target measure of inflation. Why Investors Care? The measure of choice in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is the harmonized index of consumer prices which has been constructed to allow cross member state comparisons. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In the European Monetary Union, where monetary policy decisions rest on the ECB's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Frequency Monthly 16/05/2012 09:00 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) - y/y 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% Apr Country: EMU - HICP Definition The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) is an internationally comparable measure of inflation calculated by each member of the European Union using a specific formula. Since January 1999, the European Central Bank has used the HICP as its target measure of inflation. Why Investors Care? The measure of choice in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is the harmonized index of consumer prices which has been constructed to allow cross member state comparisons. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In the European Monetary Union, where monetary policy decisions rest on the ECB's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Frequency Monthly 16/05/2012 09:00 ZEW Economic Sentiment -4.0 2.1 May Country: Switzerland Source: ZEW - The Centre for European Economic Research. Raw Data Available At: http://www.zew.de/ The ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung - Centre for European Economic Research) is a non-profit economic research institute with the legal form of a limited liability company (GmbH). It was founded in 1990 on the initiative of the government of the federal state Baden-Württemberg, trade and industry, and the Mannheim University. In April 1991 the institute took up work and has expanded rapidly since then. The ZEW Index measures investors' expectations of economic growth. The ZEW index has a good reputation of anticipating the results of the broader IFO index that is widely regarded as an important leading indicator of the economy. The IFO index is available later in each month. 16/05/2012 09:00 Imports - m/m -1.1% 3.5% Mar Country: EMU - Merchandise Trade Definition Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. Why Investors Care? Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services. Exports show the demand for eurozone goods in countries overseas. The euro can be particularly sensitive to changes in the balance since a trade imbalance can create greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of EMU trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country. Frequency Monthly 16/05/2012 09:00 Imports - y/y 0.0% 7.0% Mar Country: EMU - Merchandise Trade Definition Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. Why Investors Care? Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services. Exports show the demand for eurozone goods in countries overseas. The euro can be particularly sensitive to changes in the balance since a trade imbalance can create greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of EMU trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country. Frequency Monthly 16/05/2012 09:00 Exports - m/m -0.9% 2.4% Mar Country: EMU - Merchandise Trade Definition Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. Why Investors Care? Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services. Exports show the demand for eurozone goods in countries overseas. The euro can be particularly sensitive to changes in the balance since a trade imbalance can create greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of EMU trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country. Frequency Monthly 16/05/2012 09:00 Exports - y/y 4.0% 11.0% Mar Country: EMU - Merchandise Trade Definition Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. Why Investors Care? Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services. Exports show the demand for eurozone goods in countries overseas. The euro can be particularly sensitive to changes in the balance since a trade imbalance can create greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of EMU trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country. Frequency Monthly 16/05/2012 09:30 Bank of England Inflation Report May Country: UK - BoE Inflation Report Definition The Bank's quarterly Inflation Report was first published in 1993. The Report sets out the detailed economic analysis and inflation projections on which the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions, and presents an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation. Why Investors Care? For analysts who want to know the Monetary Policy Committees latest thinking on the economy, the Inflation Report is must reading. The Report starts with an overview of economic developments; this is followed by five sections which include analysis of money and asset prices; analysis of demand; analysis of output and supply; analysis of costs and prices and assessment of the medium-term inflation prospects and risks. The Bank of Englands governor holds a press conference to discuss the report. Frequency Quarterly 16/05/2012 11:00 MBA Composite Index - w/w 9.2% 1.7% L/W Country: US - MBA Purchase Applications Definition The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction. Why Investors Care? This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing construction has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the MBA purchase applications index carries valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies. Source Mortgage Bankers Association. Availability Wednesdays. Coverage Week-ending Friday before the release. Revisions No. Frequency Weekly 16/05/2012 11:00 MBA Purchase Index - w/w -2.4% 3.4% L/W Country: US - MBA Purchase Applications Definition The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction. Why Investors Care? This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing construction has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the MBA purchase applications index carries valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies. Source Mortgage Bankers Association. Availability Wednesdays. Coverage Week-ending Friday before the release. Revisions No. Frequency Weekly 16/05/2012 11:00 MBA Refinance Index - w/w 13.0% 1.3% L/W Country: US - MBA Purchase Applications Definition The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction. Why Investors Care? This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing construction has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the MBA purchase applications index carries valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies. Source Mortgage Bankers Association. Availability Wednesdays. Coverage Week-ending Friday before the release. Revisions No. Frequency Weekly 16/05/2012 12:30 Housing Starts - level saar 0.717M 0.690M 0.654M Apr Country: US - Housing Starts Definition A housing start is registered at the start of construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building. Why Investors Care? Two words...Ripple Effect. This narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as housing starts, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Home builders usually don't start a house unless they are fairly confident it will sell upon or before its completion. Changes in the rate of housing starts tell us a lot about demand for homes and the outlook for the construction industry. Furthermore, each time a new home is started, construction employment rises, and income will be pumped back into the economy. Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers and dryers, furniture, and landscaping are just a few things new home buyers might spend money on, so the economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think of it in terms of more than a hundred thousand new households around the country doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing starts have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the housing starts data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders, and home furnishings companies. Commodity prices such as lumber are also very sensitive to housing industry trends. Importance The housing starts report is the most closely followed report on the housing sector. Housing starts reflect the commitment of builders to new construction activity. Purchases of household furnishings and appliances quickly follow. Interpretation The bond market will rally when housing starts decrease, but bond prices will fall when housing starts post healthy gains. A strong housing market is bullish for the stock market because the ripple effect of housing to consumer durable purchases spurs corporate profits. In turn, low interest rates encourage housing construction. The level as well as changes in housing starts reveals residential construction trends. Housing starts are subject to substantial monthly volatility, especially during winter months. It takes several months to establish a trend. Thus, it is useful to look at a 5-month moving average (centered) of housing starts. It is useful to examine the trends in construction activity for single homes and multi-family units separately because they can deviate significantly. Single-family home-building is larger and less volatile than multi-family construction. It is more sensitive to interest rate changes and less speculative in nature. The construction of multi-family units can be substantially influenced by changes in the tax code and speculative real estate investors. Housing construction varies by region as well. The regions of the United States don't all follow exactly the same economic patterns because industry concentration varies in the four major regions of the country. The regional dispersion can mask underlying trends. The total level of housing construction as well as the regional distribution of housing construction is important. Housing permits are released together with housing starts every month and are considered a leading indicator of starts. In reality, housing permits and starts typically move in tandem each month. However, there are some exceptions. For instance, if permits are issued late in the month, and weather does not permit immediate excavation, then permits might lead starts. For the most part, though, permits are not a good predictor of future housing starts. Incidentally, housing permits (but not starts) are one of the ten components of the index of leading indicators compiled by The Conference Board. Frequency Monthly. Source U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development. Availability Usually during the third week of the month. Coverage Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July. Revisions Yes. 16/05/2012 12:30 Permits - level saar 0.715M 0.725M 0.747M Apr Country: US - Housing Starts Definition A housing start is registered at the start of construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building. Why Investors Care? Two words...Ripple Effect. This narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as housing starts, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Home builders usually don't start a house unless they are fairly confident it will sell upon or before its completion. Changes in the rate of housing starts tell us a lot about demand for homes and the outlook for the construction industry. Furthermore, each time a new home is started, construction employment rises, and income will be pumped back into the economy. Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers and dryers, furniture, and landscaping are just a few things new home buyers might spend money on, so the economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think of it in terms of more than a hundred thousand new households around the country doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing starts have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the housing starts data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders, and home furnishings companies. Commodity prices such as lumber are also very sensitive to housing industry trends. Importance The housing starts report is the most closely followed report on the housing sector. Housing starts reflect the commitment of builders to new construction activity. Purchases of household furnishings and appliances quickly follow. Interpretation The bond market will rally when housing starts decrease, but bond prices will fall when housing starts post healthy gains. A strong housing market is bullish for the stock market because the ripple effect of housing to consumer durable purchases spurs corporate profits. In turn, low interest rates encourage housing construction. The level as well as changes in housing starts reveals residential construction trends. Housing starts are subject to substantial monthly volatility, especially during winter months. It takes several months to establish a trend. Thus, it is useful to look at a 5-month moving average (centered) of housing starts. It is useful to examine the trends in construction activity for single homes and multi-family units separately because they can deviate significantly. Single-family home-building is larger and less volatile than multi-family construction. It is more sensitive to interest rate changes and less speculative in nature. The construction of multi-family units can be substantially influenced by changes in the tax code and speculative real estate investors. Housing construction varies by region as well. The regions of the United States don't all follow exactly the same economic patterns because industry concentration varies in the four major regions of the country. The regional dispersion can mask underlying trends. The total level of housing construction as well as the regional distribution of housing construction is important. Housing permits are released together with housing starts every month and are considered a leading indicator of starts. In reality, housing permits and starts typically move in tandem each month. However, there are some exceptions. For instance, if permits are issued late in the month, and weather does not permit immediate excavation, then permits might lead starts. For the most part, though, permits are not a good predictor of future housing starts. Incidentally, housing permits (but not starts) are one of the ten components of the index of leading indicators compiled by The Conference Board. Frequency Monthly. Source U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development. Availability Usually during the third week of the month. Coverage Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July. Revisions Yes. 16/05/2012 12:30 Manufacturing Sales - m/m 1.9% -0.3% Mar Country: Canada - Manufacturing Sales Definition The dollar level of factory shipments for manufacturing durable and nondurable goods. Why Investors Care? Manufacturer's shipments represent the monetary level of factory shipments for durable and nondurable goods and are a relevant indicator for an export-oriented economy. The data are used by analysts to evaluate the economic health of manufacturing industries. They are also used as inputs to GDP and needless to say, these data are used by the central bank in its decision-making process. The monthly survey of manufacturing of which shipments is a part, provides a broad look at manufacturing activity levels. The level of activity in manufacturing can be affected by the level of interest rates which slows or stimulates the demand for goods and production. Shipments are an indication of how busy factories have been as manufacturers work to fill orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. Because a large proportion of shipments are headed south of the border to the U.S. and include a wide variety of durables, shipments are affected by U.S. economic activity as well as the exchange rate. Although the focus in this report is on shipments, it also contains information on inventories and new and unfilled orders. Frequency Monthly 16/05/2012 12:30 Manufacturing Sales - y/y 5.9% 6.3% Mar Country: Canada - Manufacturing Sales Definition The dollar level of factory shipments for manufacturing durable and nondurable goods. Why Investors Care? Manufacturer's shipments represent the monetary level of factory shipments for durable and nondurable goods and are a relevant indicator for an export-oriented economy. The data are used by analysts to evaluate the economic health of manufacturing industries. They are also used as inputs to GDP and needless to say, these data are used by the central bank in its decision-making process. The monthly survey of manufacturing of which shipments is a part, provides a broad look at manufacturing activity levels. The level of activity in manufacturing can be affected by the level of interest rates which slows or stimulates the demand for goods and production. Shipments are an indication of how busy factories have been as manufacturers work to fill orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. Because a large proportion of shipments are headed south of the border to the U.S. and include a wide variety of durables, shipments are affected by U.S. economic activity as well as the exchange rate. Although the focus in this report is on shipments, it also contains information on inventories and new and unfilled orders. Frequency Monthly 16/05/2012 13:15 Industrial Production - m/m 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% Apr Country: US - Industrial Production Definition The index of industrial production is available nationally by market and industry groupings. The major groupings are comprised of final products (such as consumer goods, business equipment and construction supplies), intermediate products and materials. The industry groupings are manufacturing (further subdivided into durable and nondurable goods), mining and utilities. The capacity utilization rate -- reflecting the reSource utilization of the nation's output facilities -- is available for the same market and industry groupings. Industrial production was also revised to NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) in the early 2000s. Unlike other economic series that lost much historical data prior to 1992, the Federal Reserve Board was able to reconstruction historical data that go back more than 30 years. Why Investors Care? Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. The index of industrial production shows how much factories, mines and utilities are producing. The manufacturing sector accounts for less than 20 percent of the economy, but most of its cyclical variation. Consequently, this report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not. The capacity utilization rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use. If the utilization rate gets too high (above 85 percent), it can lead to inflationary bottlenecks in production. The Federal Reserve watches this report closely and sets interest rate policy on the basis of whether production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures. As such, the bond market can be highly sensitive to changes in the capacity utilization rate. In this global environment, though, global capacity constraints may matter as much as domestic capacity constraints. Importance Industrial production and capacity utilization indicate not only trends in the manufacturing sector, but also whether reSource utilization is strained enough to forebode inflation. Also, industrial production is an important measure of current output for the economy and helps to define turning points in the business cycle (start of recession and start of recovery). Interpretation The bond market will rally with slower production and a lower utilization rate. Bond prices will fall when production is robust and the capacity utilization rate suggests supply bottlenecks. Healthy production growth is bullish for the stock market only if it isn't accompanied by indications of inflationary pressures. The production of services may have gained prominence in the United States, but the production of manufactured goods remains a key to the economic business cycle. A nation's strength is judged by its ability to produce domestically those goods demanded by its residents as well as by importers. Many services are necessities of daily life and would be purchased whether economic conditions were weak or strong. Consumer durable goods and capital equipment are more likely purchased when the economy is robust. Production of manufactured goods causes volatility in the economy. When demand for manufactured goods decreases, it leads to less production with corresponding declines in employment and income. The three most significant sectors include motor vehicles and parts, aircraft and information technology. Volatility in any these single sectors could affect the total. In the 1990s, high tech production regularly posted year-over-year gains of 40 to 60 percent. After the 2001 recession, year-over-year gains moderated to 20 percent. Motor vehicle and aircraft production growth didn't match this high pace even in the best of times. Industrial production is subject to some monthly variation. As with all economic statistics, the three-month moving average of the monthly changes or year over year percent changes provide a clearer picture of the trend in this series. Frequency Monthly. Source Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Availability Usually mid- month. Coverage Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July. Revisions Yes. 16/05/2012 13:15 Capacity Utilization - level 79.2% 79.0% 78.6% Apr Country: US - Industrial Production Definition The index of industrial production is available nationally by market and industry groupings. The major groupings are comprised of final products (such as consumer goods, business equipment and construction supplies), intermediate products and materials. The industry groupings are manufacturing (further subdivided into durable and nondurable goods), mining and utilities. The capacity utilization rate -- reflecting the reSource utilization of the nation's output facilities -- is available for the same market and industry groupings. Industrial production was also revised to NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) in the early 2000s. Unlike other economic series that lost much historical data prior to 1992, the Federal Reserve Board was able to reconstruction historical data that go back more than 30 years. Why Investors Care? Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. The index of industrial production shows how much factories, mines and utilities are producing. The manufacturing sector accounts for less than 20 percent of the economy, but most of its cyclical variation. Consequently, this report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not. The capacity utilization rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use. If the utilization rate gets too high (above 85 percent), it can lead to inflationary bottlenecks in production. The Federal Reserve watches this report closely and sets interest rate policy on the basis of whether production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures. As such, the bond market can be highly sensitive to changes in the capacity utilization rate. In this global environment, though, global capacity constraints may matter as much as domestic capacity constraints. Importance Industrial production and capacity utilization indicate not only trends in the manufacturing sector, but also whether reSource utilization is strained enough to forebode inflation. Also, industrial production is an important measure of current output for the economy and helps to define turning points in the business cycle (start of recession and start of recovery). Interpretation The bond market will rally with slower production and a lower utilization rate. Bond prices will fall when production is robust and the capacity utilization rate suggests supply bottlenecks. Healthy production growth is bullish for the stock market only if it isn't accompanied by indications of inflationary pressures. The production of services may have gained prominence in the United States, but the production of manufactured goods remains a key to the economic business cycle. A nation's strength is judged by its ability to produce domestically those goods demanded by its residents as well as by importers. Many services are necessities of daily life and would be purchased whether economic conditions were weak or strong. Consumer durable goods and capital equipment are more likely purchased when the economy is robust. Production of manufactured goods causes volatility in the economy. When demand for manufactured goods decreases, it leads to less production with corresponding declines in employment and income. The three most significant sectors include motor vehicles and parts, aircraft and information technology. Volatility in any these single sectors could affect the total. In the 1990s, high tech production regularly posted year-over-year gains of 40 to 60 percent. After the 2001 recession, year-over-year gains moderated to 20 percent. Motor vehicle and aircraft production growth didn't match this high pace even in the best of times. Industrial production is subject to some monthly variation. As with all economic statistics, the three-month moving average of the monthly changes or year over year percent changes provide a clearer picture of the trend in this series. Frequency Monthly. Source Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Availability Usually mid- month. Coverage Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July. Revisions Yes. 16/05/2012 14:30 EIA Crude Oil Inventories - w/w 2.1M barrels 3.7M barrels L/W Country: US - EIA Petroleum Status Report Definition The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products. Why Investors Care? Petroleum product prices are determined by supply and demand - just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in crude oil prices - or price increases for a wide variety of petroleum products such as gasoline or heating oil. If inventories are high and rising in a period of strong demand, prices may not need to increase at all, or as much. During a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for crude oil may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push down oil prices. Crude oil is an important commodity in the global market. Prices fluctuate depending on supply and demand conditions in the world. Since oil is such an important part of the economy, it can also help determine the direction of inflation. In the U.S. consumer prices have moderated whenever oil prices have fallen, but have accelerated when oil prices have risen. Source Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Availability Wednesdays, except on federal holidays. Coverage Each weekly report has data for the week ending the previous Friday. Revisions No. Frequency Weekly 16/05/2012 14:30 EIA Gasoline Inventories -2.8M barrels -2.6M barrels L/W Country: US 16/05/2012 14:30 EIA Distillate Inventory -1.0M barrels -3.3M barrels L/W Country: US 16/05/2012 18:00 Protocol of last interest rate meeting Country: US 16/05/2012 22:45 Producer Price Index (PPI) - q/q -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Q1 Country: NewZealand - Producer Price Index Definition The producer price index is a measure of the change in the general level of prices for the productive sector of New Zealand. The release contains indexes for both outputs and inputs along with indexes for selected commodities. Frequency Quarterly 16/05/2012 22:45 Producer Price Index (PPI) - y/y 1.6% 3.4% Q1 Country: NewZealand - Producer Price Index Definition The producer price index is a measure of the change in the general level of prices for the productive sector of New Zealand. The release contains indexes for both outputs and inputs along with indexes for selected commodities. Frequency Quarterly 16/05/2012 23:50 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - q/q SAAR 4.1% 3.4% -0.7% Q1 Country: Japan - GDP Definition Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day. Why Investors Care? Gross domestic product is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Investors in the stock market like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. Bond investors are more highly sensitive to inflation and robust economic activity could potentially pave the road to inflation. By tracking economic data such as GDP, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio. Frequency Quarterly 16/05/2012 23:50 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - q/q 1.0% 0.8% -0.2% Q1 Country: Japan - GDP Definition Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day. Why Investors Care? Gross domestic product is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Investors in the stock market like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. Bond investors are more highly sensitive to inflation and robust economic activity could potentially pave the road to inflation. By tracking economic data such as GDP, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio. Frequency Quarterly 16/05/2012 23:50 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - y/y 2.6% -0.6% Q1 Country: Japan - GDP Definition Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. *Release time listed is for U.S. Eastern Time of the previous day. Why Investors Care? Gross domestic product is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Investors in the stock market like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. Bond investors are more highly sensitive to inflation and robust economic activity could potentially pave the road to inflation. By tracking economic data such as GDP, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio. Frequency Quarterly 17/05/2012 12:30 Jobless New Claims - level 365K 367K L/W Country: US - Jobless Claims Definition New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care? Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy. There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures. By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa. Source Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor. Availability Thursdays. Coverage Week-ending Saturday before the release. Revisions Yes. Frequency Weekly 17/05/2012 12:30 Jobless Claims 4-Week Moving Average - level 379.00K L/W Country: US - Jobless Claims Definition New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care? Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy. There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures. By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa. Source Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor. Availability Thursdays. Coverage Week-ending Saturday before the release. Revisions Yes. Frequency Weekly 17/05/2012 12:30 Wholesale Trade - m/m 0.3% 1.6% Mar Country: Canada - Wholesale Trade Definition Wholesale trade measures the dollar value of sales made and inventories held by merchant wholesalers. It is a component of business sales and inventories. Why Investors Care? Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a slower rate of growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. Wholesale sales and inventory data give investors a chance to look below the surface of the visible consumer economy. Activity at the wholesale level can be a precursor for consumer trends. In particular, by looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see how fast production will grow in coming months. For example, if inventory growth lags sales growth, then manufacturers will need to boost production lest product shortages occur. On the other hand, if unintended inventory accumulation occurs (i.e. sales did not meet expectations), then production will probably have to slow while those inventories are worked down. In this manner, the inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for tracking the economy. Frequency Monthly Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce Availability Generally the second week of the month. Coverage Data are for two months prior to release month. Data for June are released in August. Revisions Yes. 17/05/2012 14:00 E-Commerce Retail Sales - q/q saar 5.8% Q1 Country: US - E-Commerce Retail Sales Definition E-commerce sales are sales of goods and services where an order is placed by the buyer or price and terms of sale are negotiated over the Internet, an extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, or other online system. Payment may or may not be made online. Retail e-commerce sales are estimated from the same sample used for the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) to estimate preliminary and final U.S. retail sales. Advance U.S. retail sales are estimated from a subsample of the MRTS sample that is not of adequate size to measure changes in retail e-commerce sales. Why Investors Care? E-commerce is a faster growing segment of the retail sector than retail sales overall. This report provides detail on e-commerce retail sales and data on its share of total retail sales. The growth rates and shares of e-commerce can be used as a benchmark to compare individual companies' growth in e-commerce. E-commerce increasingly is important for retailers' profitability and viability. Frequency Quarterly. Source Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Availability The middle of the second month following the reference quarter. Coverage Data are for the previous quarter. Data for the fourth quarter are released in February. Revisions Yes. 17/05/2012 14:00 Philadelphia Fed General Business Conditions - level 10.0 8.5 May Country: US - Philadelphia Fed Survey Definition The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production. Why Investors Care? Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the Philly Fed survey, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth so that it won't lead to inflation. The Philly Fed survey gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report has a big influence on market behavior. Some of the Philly Fed sub-indexes also provide insight on commodity prices and other clues on inflation. The bond market is highly sensitive to this report because it is released early in the month and is available before other important indicators. Frequency Monthly. 17/05/2012 14:00 Leading Indicators - m/m 0.1% 0.3% Apr Country: US - Leading Indicators Definition A composite index of ten economic indicators that should lead overall economic activity. This indicator was initially compiled by the Commerce Department but is now compiled and produced by The Conference Board. It has been revised many times in the past 30 years - particularly when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points. Why Investors Care? Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly-and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy -- such as recessions and recoveries. More specifically, it was designed to lead the index of coincident indicators, also now published by The Conference Board. Investors like to see composite indexes because they tell an easy story, although they are not always as useful as they promise. The majority of the components of the leading indicators have been reported earlier in the month so that the composite index doesn't necessarily reveal new information about the economy. Bond investors tend to be less interested in this index than equity investors. Also, the non-financial media tends to give this index more press than it deserves. Frequency Monthly Source The Conference Board. Availability Third week of the month. Coverage Data are for the previous month. Data for June are released in July. Revisions Yes. 17/05/2012 14:30 EIA Natural Gas Report - w/w 30bcf L/W Country: US - EIA Natural Gas Report Definition The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S., and three regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products. Why Investors Care? Natural gas product prices are determined by supply and demand - just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in natural gas. If inventories are high and rising in a period of strong demand, prices may not need to increase at all, or as much. During a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for natural gas may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push down oil prices. Source Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Availability Thursdays, except on federal holidays. Coverage Each weekly report has data for the week ending the previous Friday. Revisions No. Frequency Weekly 17/05/2012 20:30 M2 Money Supply - w/w $57.1B L/W Country: US - Money Supply Definition The monetary aggregates are alternative measures of the money supply by degree of liquidity. Changes in the monetary aggregates indicate the thrust of monetary policy as well as the outlook for economic activity and inflationary pressures. Why Investors Care? In recent years, the various money supply measures have not mattered to most investors - though that has changed somewhat recently. The monetary aggregates (known individually as M1, M2, and M3) used to be all the rage when the Fed did not publicly announce it interest rate target because the data revealed the Fed's (tight or loose) hold on credit conditions in the economy. The Fed in the past issued target ranges for money supply growth at its first report to Congress each year. In the past, if actual growth moved outside those ranges it often was a prelude to an interest rate move from the Fed. Today, the Fed no longer sets money supply targets due to a variety of changes in the financial system and the way the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy. Monetary policy is understood more clearly by the level of the federal funds rate. But with the Fed cutting the fed funds rate to essentially zero in December 2008, markets began to look for other ways (other than rate changes) for viewing the progress and impact of quantitative easing - and tracking the money supply became one of numerous methods of seeing how the Fed's further injections of liquidity were filtering through the economy. Importance This indicator has had low importance during the Fed's publicly announced interest rate targeting period but has gained a little more stature during quantitative easing since the fed funds rate has been at essentially zero. Interpretation Markets focus on measures of money supply that are relatively liquid - M1 and M2. These are basically cash, checking deposits, and savings types of accounts. However, both measures are somewhat volatile on a weekly basis and monthly data give a better picture of how much liquidity the Fed has injected into financial markets has been converted into readily spendable forms. Source Federal Reserve Board of Governors Availability Thursdays. Coverage Data are for week ending on Monday two calendar weeks prior to release (April 6, 2009 data released April 16, 2009). Revisions Yes. Frequency Weekly 17/05/2012 20:30 Federal Reserve Bank Total Assets - w/w $-0.1B L/W Country: US - Fed Balance Sheet Definition The Fed's balance sheet is a report showing factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing (using) reserve funds. Essentially, the balance sheet shows the various Fed programs for injecting liquidity into the economy and how much the Fed has used each for adding or withdrawing reserves. This report is called Factors Affecting Reserve Balances - or the "H.4.1" report using Fed jargon. Why Investors Care? This report typically has not garnered much market attention since Fed policy has been tracked through changes in the fed funds target rate. But with the Fed cutting the fed funds rate to essentially zero in December 2008, markets began to look for other ways (other than rate changes) for viewing the progress and impact of quantitative easing - and tracking the Fed's balance sheet became one of numerous methods of seeing how the Fed's further injections of liquidity were filtering through the economy. Also, the detail of the balance sheet can indicate whether institutions using specific programs are improving as suggested by less reliance on Fed loans. Importance This indicator has had low importance during the Fed's publicly announced interest rate targeting period but has gained a little more stature during quantitative easing since the fed funds rate has been at essentially zero. Interpretation Markets focus on weekly changes for factors supplying reserves with the key measure being Reserve Bank credit. Reserve Bank credit reflects the key factors supplying reserves in the banking system and currently includes such diverse items as U.S. Treasury securities, federal agency debt securities (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), mortgage-backed securities, repurchase agreements, term auction credit, primary credit (discount window), secondary credit, seasonal credit, primary dealer credit, asset-backed commercial paper money market, credit extended to AIG, Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC, net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, Maiden Lane II LLC & Maiden Lane III LLC, float, central bank liquidity swaps, and "other" Federal Reserve asset. Reserve Bank credit is the same as total factors supplying reserve funds other than exclusions for gold stock, special drawing rights, and Treasury currency outstanding. Changes in Reserve Bank credit give a broad picture of reserve injections. But markets also track the detail of the various programs - such as holdings of U.S. Treasury securities or federal agency debt securities or primary credit (discount window) to see if certain sectors are having less need for Fed help or if the Fed is getting more involved. Source Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Availability Thursdays. Coverage Data are for daily averages for the week ending on Wednesday and also just for the day of Wednesday of the week of the release (week ending April 22 and day of April 22, 2009 released April 23, 2009). Revisions No. Frequency Weekly 17/05/2012 20:30 Federal Reserve Bank Credit - w/w $-0.6B L/W Country: US - Fed Balance Sheet Definition The Fed's balance sheet is a report showing factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing (using) reserve funds. Essentially, the balance sheet shows the various Fed programs for injecting liquidity into the economy and how much the Fed has used each for adding or withdrawing reserves. This report is called Factors Affecting Reserve Balances - or the "H.4.1" report using Fed jargon. Why Investors Care? This report typically has not garnered much market attention since Fed policy has been tracked through changes in the fed funds target rate. But with the Fed cutting the fed funds rate to essentially zero in December 2008, markets began to look for other ways (other than rate changes) for viewing the progress and impact of quantitative easing - and tracking the Fed's balance sheet became one of numerous methods of seeing how the Fed's further injections of liquidity were filtering through the economy. Also, the detail of the balance sheet can indicate whether institutions using specific programs are improving as suggested by less reliance on Fed loans. Importance This indicator has had low importance during the Fed's publicly announced interest rate targeting period but has gained a little more stature during quantitative easing since the fed funds rate has been at essentially zero. Interpretation Markets focus on weekly changes for factors supplying reserves with the key measure being Reserve Bank credit. Reserve Bank credit reflects the key factors supplying reserves in the banking system and currently includes such diverse items as U.S. Treasury securities, federal agency debt securities (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), mortgage-backed securities, repurchase agreements, term auction credit, primary credit (discount window), secondary credit, seasonal credit, primary dealer credit, asset-backed commercial paper money market, credit extended to AIG, Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC, net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, Maiden Lane II LLC & Maiden Lane III LLC, float, central bank liquidity swaps, and "other" Federal Reserve asset. Reserve Bank credit is the same as total factors supplying reserve funds other than exclusions for gold stock, special drawing rights, and Treasury currency outstanding. Changes in Reserve Bank credit give a broad picture of reserve injections. But markets also track the detail of the various programs - such as holdings of U.S. Treasury securities or federal agency debt securities or primary credit (discount window) to see if certain sectors are having less need for Fed help or if the Fed is getting more involved. Source Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Availability Thursdays. Coverage Data are for daily averages for the week ending on Wednesday and also just for the day of Wednesday of the week of the release (week ending April 22 and day of April 22, 2009 released April 23, 2009). Revisions No. Frequency Weekly 18/05/2012 06:00 Producer Price Index (PPI) - m/m 0.6% Apr Country: Germany - PPI Definition The producer price index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers. Why Investors Care? The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). Because the index of producer prices measures price changes at an early stage in the economic process, it can serve as an indicator of future inflation trends. The producer price index and its sub-indexes are often used in business contracts for the adjustment of recurring payments. They also are used to deflate other values of economic statistics like the production index. It should be noted that the PPI excludes construction. These price statistics cover both the sales of industrial products to domestic buyers at different stages in the economic process and the sales between industrial enterprises. The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace. The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 06:00 Producer Price Index (PPI) - y/y 3.3% Apr Country: Germany - PPI Definition The producer price index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers. Why Investors Care? The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). Because the index of producer prices measures price changes at an early stage in the economic process, it can serve as an indicator of future inflation trends. The producer price index and its sub-indexes are often used in business contracts for the adjustment of recurring payments. They also are used to deflate other values of economic statistics like the production index. It should be noted that the PPI excludes construction. These price statistics cover both the sales of industrial products to domestic buyers at different stages in the economic process and the sales between industrial enterprises. The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace. The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 11:00 Consumer Price Index (CPI) - m/m 0.4% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 11:00 Consumer Price Index (CPI) - y/y 1.9% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 11:00 BoC Core CPI - m/m 0.3% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 11:00 BoC Core CPI - y/y 1.9% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 11:00 Core CPI - m/m 0.4% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 11:00 Core CPI - y/y 1.5% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 12:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) - m/m 0.4% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 12:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) - y/y 1.9% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 12:30 BoC Core CPI - m/m 0.3% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 12:30 BoC Core CPI - y/y 1.9% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 12:30 Core CPI - m/m 0.4% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly 18/05/2012 12:30 Core CPI - y/y 1.5% Apr Country: Canada - CPI Definition The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why Investors Care? The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Canada, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits. As the most important indicator of inflation the CPI is closely followed by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada has a inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent but focuses on the 2 percent midpoint. It uses CPI and core which excludes food and energy as their prime inflation indicators. However, for operational purposes, the Bank also monitors a core CPI which excludes eight volatile items including fruit, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, inter-city transportation and tobacco products. Frequency Monthly   Vista Previa Econoday, Inc. has attempted to verify the accuracy of the information contained in this calendar; however, any aspect of such information may change without notice. Econoday, Inc. does not provide investment advice, and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. Copyright 2011 Econoday, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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